In addition to the trade deficit increase, the evolution of Romania’s exports and imports in the last six years (the data for 2024 concerns only 11 months) shows changes in the share of some of the main product groups. The five large groups of analyzed products hold 88.1% of total exports and 88.5% of total imports.
The pandemic resets, the energy prices hike, the raw materials price increase and the variations in supply chains, the economic problems of commercial partners along with wages increases and the drop in competitiveness in certain sectors, have reshaped the structure of Romania’s foreign trade. It’s still too early to say whether for better or for worse:
For the time being, there are only the developments following the crisis period after 2019, and the trends are still uncertain. The only certainty is the deepening of the trade deficit.
Food imports go up as exports diminish
A fluctuating trend of the share in total exports is seen in the export of foodstuff and livestock, corresponding to weather conditions. Subsequently, exports increase in years in which good harvests are obtained in the case of large crops (cereals, sunflowers, etc.), exceeding 8% of the total, while in unfavorable years they fall below 7%.
At the same time, the value of imports has a worrying trend of growth aided by inflation which was higher in the case of food products compared to non-food products at EU level.
A characteristic of Romanian agriculture is the lack of branches that bring added value, such as animal husbandry and the food industry.
In consequence, many processed foods are imported for domestic consumption, which is reflected in the increased share of these imports in total.
Chemical industry: Largest trade deficit
The chemical industry is characterized by a very large deficit, imports being approximately 10 percentage points higher than exports.
An advance in exports occurred in 2023 amid deliveries of petrochemical products to Ukraine.
2024 saw a decrease in the share of chemical products exports by almost 3 percentage points compared to the previous year.
Processed products classified by raw material include products such as steel, aluminum, rubber and miscellaneous manufactured items (clothing and accessories, footwear, etc.).
Due to prices of energy raw materials, metallurgical and chemical companies have drastically cut down production, and implicitly their share in total exports.
Automotive industry holds on heroically
Vehicles and transport equipment exports represent not only the largest share of Romanian exports but also the backbone of the Romanian manufacturing industry.
The main exporting companies are Dacia and Ford, which, however, depend on demand from the foreign market. From this point of view, the automotive industry is a vulnerability for Romanian industry, as well as for the entire region.
Nevertheless, the Romanian automotive industry is holding up.
Light industry continues to decline
The category of miscellaneous manufactured goods includes most of the light industry, clothing, knitwear, footwear, etc. Production in this sector is continuously decreasing in Romania, mainly due to wage increases that make production unprofitable. As a result, exports are decreasing and imports are increasing due to growing household spending.
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