Romania’s military, humanitarian and financial support for Ukraine between February 2022 and June 2025 amounts to EUR 1.5 billion, meaning 0.6% of the GDP in 2021, the Fiscal Council says in a response addressed to MEP Gheorghe Piperea.
The Fiscal Council explains that the structure of Romania’s budget does not include an explicit section on international assistance, and moreover, the concrete and detailed support given to Ukraine is classified based on the decision of the Supreme Council of Country Defense (CSAT).
But a recent European Parliament brief, based on data from AMECO (the European Commission’s forecasting database) and the Kiel Institute of World Economy, estimates Romania’s aid to Ukraine during the war with Russia at around EUR 1.5 billion, that is, an average of around 0.2% of GDP every year.
Disinformation is circulating online that the record budget deficit comes from Romania’s aid granted to the Republic of Moldova and Ukraine
MEP Gheorghe Piperea asked the Fiscal Council to analyze the impact of aid granted to the Republic of Moldova and Ukraine by Romania on the budget deficit, the MEP citing a series of incorrect statements by former Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu from September 2023.
Being in Brussels at the time for talks on an agreement with the Commission concerning Romania’s excessive deficit (after which taxes were increased), Ciolacu said that the deficit target of 4.4% of GDP in 2023 cannot be reached because of the efforts Romania made to support Ukraine, which is at war directly with Russia, and the Republic of Moldova, subject to a hybrid war. At the time, the prime minister wrongly mentioned a supposed aid of 3.5% of GDP to Ukraine – in fact he was referring to the totality of the negative effects of the neighboring war on Romania, estimated more recently and „accurately” by the National Bank of Romania (BNR).
At the same time, misinformation has been circulating online for several weeks that Romania grants 3.5% of GDP to Ukraine and 1.5% of GDP to the Republic of Moldova as aid, and stopping the aid would reduce the deficit to the point where there would be no need for tax increases – which contradicts reality. In fact, in 2021, the year preceding Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Romania’s budget deficit was 7.1% of GDP (according to the European ESA methodology).
Moreover, upon a simple calculation, a percentage of 3.5% of Romania’s GDP in 2024 would mean more than EUR 10 billion – while most of Romania’s aid granted to Ukraine is of a humanitarian and military nature (there are no large military equipment and technology factories), Romania being in fact at the bottom of the list of countries that support Ukraine against Russia’s war.
Romania features in the top of military support only through the Patriot system donated last year.
It should be noted that the data used by the Institute of World Economy in Kiel to estimate Romania’s humanitarian aid is based on data communicated by the national authorities. This data refers to military, humanitarian and financial support. The European Parliament briefing notes that much of the support given to Ukraine was covered by the EU budget.
The budget deficit causes have to do with faulty economic policies, not international assistance
Moreover, the Fiscal Council analyses, based on internal and external data, including that from the EU Council and the European Commission, have shown on several occasions that the very large budget slippage in recent years is caused by „inadequate financial programming, suboptimal fiscal-budgetary policy decisions and ignoring the vital need to increase tax revenues”.
‘A distinction must also be made between the impact on the public budget of external aid and the impact of the war on the economies of the EU member countries. This impact concerns inflation, the slowdown in economic growth, energy prices exploding, the deregulation of the grain market, financial markets disruptions, reallocations of intersectoral resources, public and private investments, risk aversion, trade flows, etc. The figure of 3.5% of GDP, mentioned by former Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu in September 2023 and mentioned in the request addressed to the Fiscal Council, could not be corroborated with other data to evaluate it’, the Fiscal Council adds.
In addition, Romania has been undergoing excessive deficit procedure since April 3rd, 2020, following the deficit of over 4.3% of GDP in 2019 (before pandemic and war), again the highest in the EU at the time. Regarding the massive deficit of 9.3% of GDP in the 2024 election year, the Fiscal Council shows that it was generated ‘mainly by the discretionary salary increases in the public system, the process of indexation and recalculation of pensions and the price compensation scheme in the energy sector.
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