Motto: “Russia will try to bring former communist states back under its influence using pan-Slavism or pan-Orthodoxy” (Corneliu Coposu, 1995 – when no one believed that Russia would ever again have a say in the politics of the countries that had just escaped from the communist camp)
The state of the political equation is much more serious than the result of the vote for the pro-Russian parties shows:
After getting 32-33 percent of the votes, these parties will not be able to govern, but there is still an anti-Western and East-oriented worm: the pro-Russian Stănescu – Firea – Ponta axis in the PSD (social democrat party), which at one time was also the „Dragnea axis”.
Without PSD, it will not be possible to form a government that won’t implement Russia’s policies in Romania, but it will be very relevant to which groups some of the party’s ministers will belong. We are talking about Romania’s policies regarding the economy and positioning on the international scene.
There are 3 – very serious – issues to take note of at present, even without the result of the presidential elections:
1. A government which would include PNL (liberals) and USR (reformists) would leave the opposition totally in the hands of AUR-SOS-POT (far-right extremists). This is at a time when, on the background of the economy’s landing, Romania has to restore its budgetary balances through the 7-year program sent to Brussels and without which we are approaching the point where nobody will lend us money but at exorbitant rates. (Already, in the last 2 weeks, the government has missed 2 bond auctions, because of the huge price the buyers were asking).
The political pressures, the huge gaps between the parties of a PSD-PNL-USR-UDM government, to which one should add the political sabotages of the pro-Russian axis within PSD (reverse vote, or vote with the pro-Russian axis) can create and maintain a political crisis for many years like the one in Bulgaria, a country which after 4 years and 8 governments is having now a new round of snap elections.
Russia’s stake is to keep us in this political disequilibrium, which hinders the economic policies needed to stay wired to the Western economy that is just trying to recover according to the alarm raised by the Draghi Report.
2. We don’t know how the factions in the Romanian secret services – out of any civilian control (we don’t even have civilian chiefs at the SRI and SIE anymore – they are no longer elected by the civilian political class, they are de facto appointing each other) – will play in the coming weeks or months. Under the political scene there are already clashed between generals, reservists put in charge of businesses, economic interest groups wired to Russian convoluted deals, diversionists of all colors and experts in manipulation and political ambushes.
We have no idea at this point how far Russia has penetrated Romania’s security system, because Moscow is now working – as everywhere else in Europe – with the „client’s merchandise”: the social mentality, the source of the population’s discontent and the betrayal of the elites.
3. In the coming days thanks to this very encounter the first data about the axis that has penetrated Romania will begin to emerge:
From the actual external linkages and to the proxies between pro-Russians in the Republic of Moldova, to the Romanian financiers – businessmen we see in the press and companies of these linkages.
If this happens and if it gains momentum, it will be very difficult to form a government in which the political allies trust each other, so that we can return to political coherence and to the timetable for a 2025 Budget that will guarantee the business environment the stability needed for development, all the more so as the entire European economy is landing, the Romanian economy included.
Not only is the hybrid war not over, but the allies of the main belligerents are not yet well known. The first step to be taken is the formation of a government to fill the void left by the degeneration of the mainstream political parties – i.e. „stabilizing the front” – and only then to regain political independence on the Romanian scene, inch by inch.
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