On the demand side, investments were the main driver of economic growth in the third quarter of this year – contributing 2.9 percentage points (pp) to the annual advance of 1.6 pp, according to detailed data published on Friday by the National Institute of Statistics (INS).
On the supply side, construction and agriculture were the main sources of growth, contributing 0.8 pp and 0.5 pp, respectively, in Q3.
In the third quarter of 2025, Romania’s economy shrank by 0.2% against the previous quarter, but rose by 1.6% against the same period last year, accelerating from 0.3% in the previous quarter (Q2 2025 compared to Q2 2024). In the first nine months, cumulative growth stood at 0.8% annually.
Q3 data confirms transition from consumption to investment / Good agricultural year rounds out the numbers, but industry still hasn’t recovered
In terms of supply, agriculture contributed +0.5 pp to the 1.6% annual GDP growth in Q3 2025. The contribution in the first nine months was estimated by the NIS at 0.2 pp.
Industry added +0.2 pp to growth in Q3 (but continues to have a negative contribution in the first nine months, of -0.1 pp), while construction was the strongest contributor with +0.8 pp (0.5 pp in the first nine months).
„Services were broadly neutral, although some of the growth momentum came from the IT&C sector. Net taxes added +0.1 pp,” Erste economists mention in a note to investors.
It is worth noting the extremely modest contribution of trade, transport and HoReCa, of only 0.1 pp in Q3, and zero in the first nine months.
Net exports make surprising positive contribution to GDP growth in Q3
In terms of demand, private consumption contributed +0.3 pp to the 1.6% annual GDP growth, and public consumption added another +0.3 pp.
„These positive contributions mainly reflect favorable base effects, as both components declined on a quarterly basis. In contrast, investment was the main driver of growth, adding a strong +2.7 pp, supported by the robust quarterly performance,” note the Austrian bank’s economists.
Net exports also turned positive this quarter, contributing +0.5 pp, as weaker domestic demand reduced imports.
„However, inventories offset much of this momentum, taking out -2.2 pp from quarterly growth,” they note.
Analyzing the cumulative performance after the first three quarters, private consumption added +0.2 pp, public consumption decreased by -0.1 pp, investments contributed +1.2 pp, net exports dragged down by -0.8 pp, and inventories added +0.3 pp.
ING, strong revision of growth forecast for 2025: +1.1% of GDP, compared to the initial 0.3%
The data prompted ING economists to revise their forecast for 2025 upwards.
„We now expect the GDP growth for the full year 2025 to be 1.1% (from the previous 0.3%, e.d.), assuming a new quarterly contraction in Q4 2025. This means that, technically speaking, the economy would experience a short-term recession in the second half of this year. For 2026, we maintain the forecast at 1.4%, with investments remaining the main driver of growth, supported by substantial public spending as Romania enters the final year of the NPRR,” states a note sent to investors.
In their opinion, retail sales data indicate worrying consumption in Q4.
After a partial recovery from a sharp decline in August, retail activity weakened again in October. Sales fell 1.1% from the previous month, following a downward revision to September data. All major categories – food, non-food and fuels – slowed in October.
“This aligns with historically low consumer confidence, suggesting that cautious spending will persist in the coming months,” ING economists note.
The economy could accelerate to 2.1% in 2026
Erste’s forecast for GDP growth in 2025 stays at 1.3%, supported by data for the first three quarters.
Even expecting zero sequential growth in Q4 2025, the annual growth rate should go up slightly by yearend, providing a modest boost to the annual average, according to the Austrian bank’s economists.
“Looking ahead, the growth rate is expected to jump to 2.1% in 2026, although this forecast depends on a solid performance in the latter part of 2025, given the importance of the carry-over effect. A weaker-than-expected fourth quarter would introduce downside risks,” they warn.
Consumption is expected to remain moderate throughout 2026, with an improvement in the second half of the year, but its overall contribution should be broadly neutral.
On the other hand, investment is expected to remain the main driver of growth, supported by substantial public spending. The halt of the NPRR should stimulate both state and private investment activity.
Net exports are expected to make a relatively neutral contribution in 2026, reflecting moderate domestic demand. „However, Romania’s structural imbalances – especially in terms of competitiveness and supply – remain present and could exert additional pressure on growth through the foreign trade channel,” the cited report also states.
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